|
Project Risk Management ¡@ PMBOK Guide ¸©ú¾ÉŪ ¡@ Project Risk Management n Conducts risk management planning, identification, analysis, response, and monitoring and control on a project n Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a negative effect on at least one project objective n Risk that are threats to the project may be accepted if the risk is in balance with the reward that may gained by taking the risk n Processes include 1. Risk Management Planning 2. Risk Identification 3. Qualitative Risk Analysis 4. Quantitative Risk Analysis 5. Risk Response Planning 6. Risk Monitoring and Control
l ¡@ Risk Management Planning n Decides how to approach and conduct the risk management activities for a project
l ¡@ Risk Management Plan n The output of risk management planning n Includes l Methodology l Roles and responsibilities l Budgeting l Timing l Risk categories l Definitions of risk probability and impact l Probability and impact matrix l Revised stakeholders¡¦ tolerances l Reporting formats l Tracking
l ¡@ Scales for Probability n From ¡§very unlikely¡¨ to ¡§almost certainty¡¨ n Numerical probabilities on a general scale, e.g., 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9
l ¡@ Scales for Impact n Rank-ordered descriptors such as ¡§very low¡¨, ¡§low,¡¨ ¡§moderate,¡¨ ¡§high,¡¨ and ¡§very high¡¨ n Numeric impacts l Linear: 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9 l Nonlinear: 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.8 l Nonlinear scales presents the organization¡¦s desire to avoid high-impact threats or exploit high-impact opportunities
l ¡@ Risk identification n Determines which risks might affect the project and documents their characters n Tools and techniques 1. Documentation Review 2. Information Gathering Techniques l Brainstorming l Delphi technique l Interviewing l Root cause identification l Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis 3. Checklist Analysis 4. Assumptions Analysis 5. Diagramming Techniques l Cause-and-effect diagrams l System or process flow charts l Influence diagrams
l ¡@ Brainstorming n Obtains a comprehensive list of project risks n Ideas about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator
l ¡@ Delphi technique n Way to reach a consensus of experts n Helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one person from having undue influence on the outcome
l ¡@ SWOT Analysis n Ensures examination of the project from each of the SWOT perspectives, to increase the breadth of considered risk
l ¡@ Influence Diagrams n Graphical representations of situations showing causal influences n Time ordering of evens n Shows relationships among variables and outcomes
l ¡@ Risk Register n The outputs of Risk identification n Contains l List of identified risks l List of potential response l Roots causes of risk l Updated risk categories
l ¡@ Qualitative Risk Analysis n Prioritizes the identified risks for further action n Assesses the priority of identified risks using their probability of occurring, the corresponding impact on project objectives if the risks do occur, etc. n Tools and Techniques l Risk Probability and Impact Assessment l Probability and Impact Matrix l Risk Data Quality Assessment l Risk Categorization l Risk Urgency Assessment
l ¡@ Probability and Impact Matrix n A Tool of Qualitative Risk Analysis n Specifies combinations of probability and impact that lead to rating the risks as low, moderate, or high priority
l ¡@ Risk Register (Updates) n The outputs of Qualitative Risk Analysis n Contains l Relative ranking or priority list of project risks l Risks grouped by categories l List of risks requiring response in the near-term l List of risks for additional analysis and response l Watchlists of low priority risks l Trends in Qualitative risk analysis results
l ¡@ Quantitative Risk Analysis n Analyzes the effect of the risk events and assigns a numerical rating to those risks, to l Quantify the possible outcomes for the project and their probabilities l Assess the probability of achieving specific project objectives l Identify risks requiring the most attention by quatifying their relative contribution to overall project risk l Identify realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets, given the project risks l Determine the best project management decision when some conditions or outcomes are uncertain n Tools and Techniques u Data gathering and Representation Techniques l Interviewing l Probability distributions l Expert judgment u Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques l Sensitivity analysis l Expected monetary value analysis l Decision tree analysis l Modeling and simulation
l ¡@ Risk Response Planning n Develops options, and determines actions to enhance opportunities and reduce threats to the project¡¦s objectives. n Includes the identification and assignment of one or more persons to take responsibility for each agreed-to and funded risk response. n Tools and Techniques 1. Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats l Avoid l Transfer l Mitigate 2. Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities l Exploit l Share l Enhance 3. Strategies for Both Threats and Opportunities l Avoid l Transfer l Mitigate 4. Contingent Response Strategy
l ¡@ Risk Monitoring and Control n Identifying, Analyzing, and Planning for newly arising risks, keeping track of the identified risks and those on watchlist, reanalyzing existing risks, monitoring trigger conditions for contingency plans, monitoring residual risks, and review the execution of risk responses while evaluating their effectiveness n Involves choosing strategies, executing a contingency or fallback plan, taking corrective action, and modifying the project management plan ¡@ l ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ ¡@ |